計算

如果其中一年沒有派發任何股息,我如何計算股息增長率?

  • October 17, 2017

根據<http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividendgrowthrate.asp>,這就是我要計算股息率的方式。

Year 1 = $1.00
Year 2 = $1.05
Year 3 = $1.07
Year 4 = $1.11
Year 5 = $1.15

Year 1 Growth Rate = N/A
Year 2 Growth Rate = $1.05 / $1.00 - 1 = 5%
Year 3 Growth Rate = $1.07 / $1.05 - 1 = 1.9%
Year 4 Growth Rate = $1.11 / $1.07 - 1 = 3.74%
Year 5 Growth Rate = $1.15 / $1.11 - 1 = 3.6%


The average of these four annual growth rates is 
(5% + 1.9% + 3.74% + 3.6%) / 4 = 3.56%

但是,我想知道,如果第 4 年不支付任何股息,那麼增長率應該如何計算?

Year 1 = $1.00
Year 2 = $1.05
Year 3 = $1.07
Year 4 = $0
Year 5 = $1.15

Year 1 Growth Rate = N/A
Year 2 Growth Rate = $1.05 / $1.00 - 1 = 5%
Year 3 Growth Rate = $1.07 / $1.05 - 1 = 1.9%
Year 4 Growth Rate = $0 / $1.07 - 1 = -100%
Year 5 Growth Rate = ?


The average of these four annual growth rates is 
?

是否有任何通用方程來計算股息增長率?

如果公司有時一年內不支付股息,那麼您無法使用這種方法真正計算股息增長率,因為您將被除以零。該公式假設每年支付股息。

要計算公司跳過付款的數據集的股息增長率,您需要使用不同的時間段。例如,您可能每 2 年查看一次數據。使用您的範例中的數據:

Year 1 & 2: $2.05
Year 3 & 4: $1.07  (-48%)
Year 5 & 6: $2.32 (+117%) (Assume $1.17 in Year 6)

兩年內平均股息增長率為 34.5%,或每年約 17%。如您所見,這並不能很好地反映實際發生的情況,因為第 4 年發生的異常情況超出了平均值。如果您認為第 4 年確實是一個不太可能再次發生的不尋常事件,您可以在預測您未來的股息增長時丟棄該數據點,可能是這樣的:

Year 1-2: 5%
Year 2-3: 1.9%
Year 3-5: 7.5%/2 years, 3.25% per year
Average: 3.6% per year

或者,如果您認為您的公司將來可能會跳過股息支付,您將需要更多數據點,以便您了解這種情況發生的頻率。

引用自:https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/86208